Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Alberta

The recent vote to merge the PC and Wildrose parties into the UCP confirms what we already expected was going to happen. What is new is the move to the Alberta Party of many disgruntled PC members.

I've taken some of the math from the federal CA-PC merger, and applied to to this one; as well, I've looked at recent polls. I've come up with a figure that I feel best represents the current standings of both parties. I've also been able to re-balance the sub-regional standings of the parties.

Regardless, this is a topic I've spoken about before.

Kenney and the UCP should not count on an automatic victory. Federally,  the merger did not result in a simple addition of one plus one. You will always run in to people who vote for certain parties for various reasons. Many people vote for parties they disagree with because they may like the leader, or, more commonly, may want to hurt another party in particular. There will be both PC and Wildrose voters who will vote NDP just to hurt the UCP because they disagree with the merger as a concept. Not many, but enough to boost the NDP by a few points. Additionally, the two right-wing parties, with different policies, could attract more voters than a single UCP could with a single policy booklet.

As such a close two way race is likely. It is always possible, if the NDP keeps making mistakes in office, or the UCP jerks itself to the right, that one or the other party could gain a strong lead, but until then, I expect the election itself will be a contest between two strong parties, even if the polls say otherwise right up to the dropping of the writ (as it did last time)



Popular Vote

Provincewide
44% NDP (42)
44% UCP (42)
8% ALB (3)

Calgary
44.2% UCP (13 seats)
41.6% NDP (11)
8.6% ALB (1)

Edmonton
58.1% NDP (23)
32.1% UCP (1)
6.0% ALB

Smaller Cities (Med Hat, R.Deer, Leth, G.Prairie, Airdrie, F.Mac)
43.1% UCP (6)
42.3% NDP (3)
11.4% ALB (1)

Rural North
49.2% UCP (10)
39.6% NDP (4)
8.9% ALB (1)

Rural South
61.5% UCP (12)
27.9% NDP (1)
6.8% ALB


Sunday, July 23, 2017

United Kingdom

Theresa May's position has been progressively weakened since the election, with suggestions that David Davis may take over as Prime Minister.

There is still some thought to calling a snap election to help sort out this mess. Any such snap election could look like this:


Labour seems to be in lead, and that lead seems to be slowly growing.

It is not unreasonable to think that Corbyn could win a majority if a snap election were called. Additionally, with a stronger leader, the Liberal Democrats could slowly grow in strength, perhaps gaining a few seats as well.

Not much else to say at this point. Corbyn is in a very strong position as it is, and the Tories will need to get their house in order if they plan to win the next election.

Friday, July 21, 2017

Prince Edward Island

Not much to say here that I've not already pointed out before. The Green Party is polling very well, and has been in second place during the term. Pever Bevan-Baker, party leader, is extremely popular.

I know quite a bit about PEI politics, and much of the Green Party vote is similar to the NDP vote in that it is a vote against the two major parties. As such I expect a degree of fluidity of the NDP vote willing to swing to the Green Party should the Greens be doing very well at the time of the next election.

PEI as well, being a smaller province, can easily see apparently major swings in various ridings based on local factors and candidates. However, presuming province-wide trends remain stable, it is possible to make a projection of sorts.

Thus, assuming the Tories fall to 3rd, and more importantly, the Greens were to take around 35% of the vote, and, were to attract the majority of NDP supporters (ideally including a few of their stronger candidates) we could expect to see a result that looks somewhat like this:

This would, of course, mark a radical shift in politics for PEI and would make headlines across the country.

In the end, however, I expect that this result is unlikely as it is far more likely the Tories will return to a stable second place and the Greens will fall back into a clear third.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Plan for the summer

As I've mentioned before, I will be making 3 posts a week. Ideally, this will be a post every 2 days, meaning some weeks will have 4 posts, but I can't guarantee that. I've decided that for the next 10 weeks I want to cover all 10 provinces, and, look at 10 countries, in particular: The UK, Belgium, Ireland, Germany, Italy, Spain, New Zealand, Japan, Lebanon, and Norway. 

I can't guarantee the order in which they will be covered, events may happen (or not happen) that cause me to bring up (or delay) a certain country (or province) but in general, I want to get places where things are happening (UK, BC, etc) out of the way first and save places where (outside of polling) things are stable and are expected to remain that way (such as Italy, or Nova Scotia) for the latter weeks.

Sunday, July 16, 2017

Next Israeli Election

In the last (2015) election, 10 parties won seats.

30 Likud (Conservative)
24 Zionist Union (Progressive)
13 Joint List (Pro-Arab)
11 Yesh Atid (Liberal)
10 Kulanu (Centrist)
8 Jewish Home (Nationalist)
7 Shas (Religious)
6 Yisrael Beiteinu (Populist)
6 UTJ (Religious)
5 Meretz (Left)


Current polls show that some shifts would occur. The following is a rough average from prior to June of this year.


28 Likud (Conservative)
25 Yesh Atid (Liberal)
13 Joint List (Pro-Arab)
11 Jewish Home (Nationalist)
10 Zionist Union (Progressive)
7 Kulanu (Centrist)
7 Yisrael Beiteinu (Populist)
7 UTJ (Religious)
6 Shas (Religious)
6 Meretz (Left)


Since then, Labour (part of the Zionist Union) has elected a new leader who is seen as more moderate. Polls since this have shown a shift.


27 Likud (Conservative)
20 Zionist Union (Progressive)
20 Yesh Atid (Liberal)
12 Joint List (Pro-Arab)
11 Jewish Home (Nationalist)
8 Kulanu (Centrist)
7 UTJ (Religious)
5 Shas (Religious)
5 Yisrael Beiteinu (Populist)
5 Meretz (Left)


An election is not expected for years however.

It is unclear what coalition could be formed from this, but some people seem to think the Joint List could get in on a government in the future. If this were to ever happen, a Zionist Union, Yesh Atid, Joint List, Kulanu, Meretz government would have a majority. 



Friday, July 14, 2017

Update - 14JUL2017

The only ongoing political stories are about Trump, which I go out of my way to ignore.

In the coming week we'll look at the Israeli political situation along with keep up to date with current events

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Summer Schedule

July and August tend to be quiet months for politics, so posts might be a bit spotty.

As such I'm scaling back the schedule slightly, but will always try to make at least 3 posts a week.

I will try to use this time to examine certain nations in more detail without only doing so as they near an election. Places like Germany, Italy, Israel, Japan, and so on.